Masterforex v trading system

Masterforex-V: A 5ª série: sistema de telas Elder39s sistema de telas Masterforex-Vs 8 - Masterforex-V Postado 23 de dezembro de 2009 - 10:59 Tendências de curto prazo, médio prazo e longo prazo. Nas tendências do Masterforex-V TS, as tendências são divididas em: 1. uma tendência de curto prazo (gráficos M15-M30) de 1 am até o final de um dia de negociação 2. uma tendência de médio prazo (gráficos H1-H4) e uma tendência de H1 dura De vários dias a uma semana. Uma tendência de h4 dura várias semanas e mais. 3. uma tendência de longo prazo (D1-W1) uma tendência D1-W1 (1 castiçal 1 semana) dura de 1 a vários meses, uma tendência W1-MN (1 castiçal 1 mês de semana) dura vários anos em média. Síntese de cronograma em MF-V TS. A essência da síntese do período: todos os intervalos de tempo de M1 a W1-MN são os componentes constituintes de um movimento unido do par de moedas, que é convencionalmente dividido em tendências de curto prazo, médio e longo prazo, um prazo menor é um Constituinte de um exemplo maior de síntese: uma tendência de curto prazo M15-30 que dura um período de sessão de negociação é um componente de uma tendência intermediária H1 que dura de vários dias a várias semanas, uma tendência intermediária H1 é um constituinte De uma tendência intermediária H4 que dura desde várias semanas e mais A síntese dos padrões de modelos de inversão de tendência em diferentes TFs: se vemos um padrão de inversão, ele é válido apenas para o período atual do ponto de vista de um prazo maior que pode Seja um padrão de reversão ou um padrão de continuação, a revisão mais detalhada do algoritmo de combinação de tendência e flat-line é dada na nota dedicada à análise de onda. O exemplo da combinação de padrões de continuação de tendência de tendência em diferentes TFs: veja a espinha como um modelo de reversão de curto prazo. O cronograma do meio prazo mostrou a recuperação do nível nivelado dentro do retângulo como um padrão de continuação da tendência (a imagem é extraída de Schwagers Guia do quot do livro ao Futures Marketsquot O pico do padrão de inversão é apenas um elemento do retângulo de um TF maior. No livro MF-V 2, é dada uma explicação detalhada do que permaneceu inescrito para J. Schwager. É o que é a diferença entre o Correção de espiga (a parte inferior da imagem extraída do livro de Schwagers) e o pico da inversão de tendência genuína. Para obter mais informações, consulte masterforex-v. su002009.htm Retângulos que mostram os padrões de continuação das tendências de baixa e alta de um período maior Os exemplos de um Tendência e um plano de TFs diferentes. Síntese de tendências a médio e longo prazo O mesmo movimento é uma forte tendência de baixa tendência do ano N H4 uma correção no skype D1 (longo prazo) - nthint Apenas minha opinião, Anatoliy. Postado 23 de dezembro de 2009 - 11:26 Sistema Elders 3 telas O sistema 3 telas é desenvolvido por A. Elder e foi usado desde 1985. O sistema filtra todos os negócios com 3 testes ou 3 telas. Um monte de negócios que, a princípio, parecem atraentes rejeitados por uma ou outra tela do sistema. Os negócios que passam o teste completo (são aprovados por todas as telas) têm uma alta porcentagem de probabilidade para se tornar um sucesso. A escolha do prazo em A. Elder's sistema Elder diz que todo comerciante deve escolher o trade timeframeto. No sistema de 3 telas é chamado de prazo médio. O longo período de tempo é consideravelmente mais longo, o curto é consideravelmente mais curto. O primeiro exemplo do sistema para comércio intermediário Por exemplo, você quer negociar por vários dias ou semanas. Neste caso, seu prazo médio deve ser expresso através do uso de gráficos diários. Os gráficos semanais são consideravelmente mais longos. Então, eles representarão o longo prazo. As tabelas de horas são consideravelmente mais curtas, de modo que representam o curto prazo. O 2º exemplo do sistema para negociação de curto prazo Os comerciantes intradiários que fecham as posições abertas dentro de uma hora podem usar o mesmo princípio. Para eles, os gráficos m10 serão o prazo médio, h1 o longo prazo, m2, o curto período de tempo. - Ordem de preparação para negociação do sistema The-3-screens O sistema exige que você primeiro examine os gráficos do período que você vai usar. Isso permitirá que você negocie apenas na direção do fluxo: com a tendência do gráfico de longo prazo. As ondas que vão contra o fluxo são usadas para entrar no mercado (para abrir uma posição). Por exemplo, se a tendência semanal vai para cima, então os mínimos diários dão a um comerciante a oportunidade de comprar. Se a tendência semanal for, os máximos diários dão a um comerciante a oportunidade de vender. A negociação com o sistema de 3 telas começa com a análise do gráfico do período que é consideravelmente maior do que aquele que você vai negociar. A 1ª tela do sistema usa os indicadores de tendência para definir as tendências a longo prazo. Você pode usar muitos desses indicadores de tendências primeiro para rever as tendências das tabelas semanais, em seguida, pesquisar os gráficos diários apenas para as posições que estão indo com a tendência semanal. Tela 1: Defina a tendência semanal com a ajuda de um indicador de tendência e trocar apenas com ele. Um comerciante tem 3 opções: comprar, vender e ficar longe do mercado. A 1ª tela cancela uma delas. Ele funciona como um sensor que permite que você apenas compre ou fique longe durante grandes aumentos e apenas para vender ou ficar longe durante grandes quedas. Você deve nadar apenas com o fluxo ou ficar longe do rio. Tela 2: Uma onda de mercado. A segunda tela define a onda que vai contra a tendência. Quando a tendência semanal vai para cima, então uma queda do diário dá ao comerciante um motivo para comprar. Se a tendência semanal vai para baixo, então um aumento do diário dá ao comerciante um motivo para vender. Quando a tendência semanal vai para cima, o sistema Elders aprova apenas os sinais do oscilador diário para comprar e rejeita os sinais do diacilo do dia para vender. E vice-versa, quando a tendência semanal vai para baixo, o sistema Elders aprova apenas os sinais do oscilador diário para vender e rejeita os sinais diários do oscilador para comprar. Tela 3: entrada intradía. A 1ª tela define a direção do fluxo de mercado (impulso) em gráficos semanais. A segunda tela define as ondas que vão contra o fluxo em gráficos diários. A terceira tela define os mergulhos ou retrocessos nas ondas de impulso. Ele usa o movimento do preço intradiário para definir o preciso, ambos são bons momentos para entrar no mercado. Imagens - sistema Elders 3 ecrãs 1. A análise do gráfico D1 permite que você defina a tendência. 2. A análise do gráfico H4 permite que você defina o pullback (correção). 3. Alternando para um período de tempo menor (h1, m30, m15, m5), definimos o (s) ponto (s) para entrar no mercado na direção da tendência. Skype - nthint Apenas minha opinião, Anatoliy. 3 Everest Grupo: Membros Posts: 439 Registrado: 08 de abril de 2007 Postado 02 de janeiro de 2010 - 22:35 FIRST SCREEN a longo prazo, serve para identificar a tendência de longo prazo. Quanto ao sistema Elders, devemos identificar a tendência a longo prazo nesta tela e negociar somente nesta direção. Os indicadores de tendência são usados ​​aqui, como, histogramas MACD e médias móveis com 13 e 26 (EMA) períodos. 1) O histograma MACD dá um sinal de compra quando sua inclinação aparece. Os melhores sinais de compra são fornecidos quando este indicador aparece abaixo da linha central. Quando MACD-Histograma virar para baixo, ele dá um sinal de venda. Os sinais de melhor venda são dados quando desce de cima da linha central. 2) O sinal mais forte da Análise Técnica é a divergência. Divergência entre preço e MACD-Histograma aparece quando o preço e os histogramas se movem do lado oposto. Divergence aponta os principais pontos de inversão e dá sinais de venda ou compra especialmente fortes. ) A divergência de baixa ocorre quando os preços aumentam para novos máximos e o histograma do MACD pára em pontos inferiores. Regra: Vender curto quando o histograma MACD assinala de baixo do seu segundo e inferior, enquanto os preços estão em uma nova alta. Coloque uma parada de proteção acima da mais alta alta. ) Se os preços caírem para um novo som, mas o histograma MACD traça uma baixa mais superficial, ele cria uma divergência de alta. Regra: Compre quando o histograma MACD marca o seu segundo fundo, mais raso, enquanto os preços estão em uma nova baixa. Coloque uma parada de proteção abaixo da mais recente baixa. SINAIS EMA: quando um EMA aumenta, troque esse mercado pelo lado longo. Quando o EMA cai, troque esse mercado pelo lado curto. Quando a EMA fica plana e só muda um pouco, identifica um mercado sem rumo e sem tendências. Na medida em que, EMA é um indicador de tendência seguinte, não usamos isso em movimento plano e apenas observamos isso para tomar uma decisão de troca no tempo na próxima vez. Elder explica a importância do lote na tomada de decisões. Isso significa que, quando o preço é em torno da EMA e próximo dele, é mais preferível e dará mais lucro do que o aberto muito longe da média móvel. Para identificar a tendência na primeira tela, é necessário considerar os seguintes fatores: declive do histograma MACD, combinando o EMA com a inclinação dos histogramas. 26 EMA é usado na primeira tela. SEGUNDA TELA Velocidade de mercado. A segunda tela identifica a onda que vai contra a maré. Razões para ir longo e vender curto será a onda que vai contra a maré, significa que temos a oportunidade de fazer trades na reversão da tendência e, assim, vamos nos deixar diminuir os riscos prováveis ​​e o tamanho da parada-perda. Para analisar SEGUNDA TELA, usamos MACD, estocástico, canal e EMA. Enquanto essa tela for nossa tela principal, devemos analisá-la em detalhes. Stochastic dá três tipos de sinais comerciais, listados aqui na ordem de importância: divergências, o nível de linhas estocásticas e sua direção. Ele dá sinal para comprar quando a tendência principal está subindo, mas estocástica vai abaixo de 20 e entra na zona de sobrevenda. Se a tendência é descendente, mas o estocástico ultrapassa 80, mostrando a zona de sobrecompra, dá sinal de venda curta. As divergências também são consideradas como sinais. O último sinal no gráfico diário mostra tendência descendente, a linha de sinal saiu da zona, o que significa que devemos aceitar apenas sinais de venda. O canal deve incluir 95 de todos os preços em si. A borda superior mostra o comportamento maníaco da coroa, menor depressivo. Se comprarmos ao nível da EMA, devemos vender quando o preço vai para o nível superior do canal. Os canais ajudam a capturar movimentos acima ou abaixo do nível, mas não as tendências a longo prazo. Se os preços saem do canal, e volte para a EMA, é preferível jogar na direção da inclinação das médias móveis. Break out of level permite negociar na direção de breakout. Em um movimento plano, os alvos para tirar lucros e abrir novos negócios serão fronteiras do canal. Para identificar a onda que vai contra a tendência principal, devemos usar a inclinação de MACD e EMA 13. Fugas intradias da TERCEIRA PISTA. A terceira tela identifica as ondulações na direção do empatado. Não requer um gráfico ou um indicador. É uma técnica para entrar no mercado depois que a primeira e a segunda tela deram um sinal para comprar ou vender curto. Isso significa que a posição deve ser aberta dentro de várias horas ou dias, dependendo do período de tempo que escolhemos, portanto, não é recomendado procurar o ponto de entrada no mercado na terceira tela, se ainda estiver disponível com o seu ponto exato de saída de mercado. A terceira tela também é chamada de método de compra deslizante quando a tendência é ascendente e o método de venda deslizante quando a tendência é descendente. Regra de jogo: enquanto a tendência principal (primeira tela) está aumentando, e a segunda tela mostra tendência para baixo, o método de deslizamento para compra será ativado. Enquanto a tendência principal (primeira tela) está caindo, o método de sliding sell-short será ativado. O método é baseado em ordens deslizantes para buysell short. O pedido está localizado mais alto dos filtros de propagação máxima máxima de alta velocidade de uma hora de vela (3 pips). Elder usa esse método. Para usar este método, é necessário um gráfico de H1 como mínimo. Usá-lo em prazos inferiores levará a uma menor eficiência. Nesse caso, nos usamos médias estocásticas e móveis com períodos de 13 e 26 (EMA). Método de ordem deslizante: depois de formar uma onda contra a tendência e a localização da zona estocástica na zona de oversoldoverbought, procure o ponto de entrada com ordem deslizante após o mercado até atingir a ordem. Stop-loss é configurado acima do máximo mínimo. Método do pedido de mercado: assim que o sistema de impulso na segunda tela 097lerts sobre negociação na direção da primeira tela, troque com ordem de mercado. A perda de parada está localizada abaixo do mínimo máximo do dia anterior. Método de negociação dentro do alcance: o preço é considerado o mais próximo da média móvel, também serve como linha de suporte de resistência. Assim como o sistema de impulso permite o comércio na direção da tendência principal, a ordem do mercado. A perda de parada está localizada acima do mínimo máximo mais próximo. O alvo para tirar proveito será o limite do canal. Ele muda todos os dias por causa das propriedades do canal. Assim que o preço o toca, feche a posição e conserte o lucro. Site de Visita da Revista Masterforex-V Outros sites desta empresa incluem Masterforex-V. su, Masterforex-V. org e Profi-Forex. org Masterforex-V é um Empresa de educação forex. O Master forex-V oferece materiais de treinamento de forex. A escola de comerciantes da Masterforex-V39s inclui fundamentos de negociação de divisas, análise técnica de divisas, análise fundamental de divisas, futuros de divisas, etc., para seu mercado pessoal de forex. Discussão ao vivo Cadastre-se na discussão ao vivo do Masterforex-V no nosso fórum Perfil Masterforex-V fornecido pela NicoleFX, 8 de janeiro de 2015 O Trading MasterForex-V World Academy é de 10 anos em negócios e 4 anos seguidos reconhecidos oficialmente como o quotBest FOREX Training na Europa 2009-2013quot. - Em suas muralhas, realizou mais de 100 descobertas no campo da análise técnica e de ondas dos mercados financeiros. A Academia MasterForex-V World está dando boas vindas a você para usar nossa Free Traders School. Junte nossa sala de transações grátis ao vivo e aproveite a experiência de negociação com uma Treinador de negociação profissional - Entre em contato com nossa sala de transmissão gratuita e desfrute da experiência de negociação com um treinador comercial profissional. Eu apenas quero adicionar meus 2 centavos. Eu passei muito tempo lendo livros Masterforex-V e agora eu posso lhe dar minha opinião. Antes de tudo, quero apresentar-me. Meu nome é Anthony Schneider. Sim, você entendeu bem, eu sou meio alemão. ) Ainda assim, não sei falar alemão, mas há algum sangue alemão que atravessa minhas veias. Eu sou comerciante de forex com apenas 2 anos de experiência comercial, mas já tenho um bom sistema de negociação. Tanto quanto eu sei, o sistema ruim (ou nenhum sistema) significa dor no burro para qualquer comerciante, e todos vocês estão ansiosos para ter o método de negociação que se tornará o Santo Graal para você. Não quero decepcioná-lo, mas não há Graal, e você deve entender isso primeiro para encontrar algo que o ajude. Eu encontrei um sistema, que funciona para mim neste site. Existem 3 livros no site - o 1º e o 2º são gratuitos. No 1, você pode ler todos os conceitos básicos sobre o forex: diferentes sistemas, livros famosos dos clássicos forex, erros comuns dos iniciantes. E assim por diante, muitas coisas úteis. Eu não posso dizer que eu sei tudo agora, mas algum conhecimento básico e sistema DEFINITE - sim. Passei um ano e meio em vão, e foi como um raio na minha cabeça para ler este livro. No segundo livro encontrei todos os principais indicadores técnicos e o que é mais importante - descrição definitiva sobre como usá-lo. Eu construí meu sistema com base neste livro. Agora eu tento usá-lo e testá-lo todos os dias na conta demo. Alguns negócios que eu faço no real. Eu não quero forçar você e sua decisão, mas posso dizer que isso funciona para mim. Pelo menos todos podem tentar e ler apenas esses capítulos, dos quais ele se interessou. Agora eu estou estudando na Masterforex-V Trading Academy. Eu compartilharei com vocês meus pensamentos sobre seu sistema educacional mais tarde. Mas você pode simplesmente me enviar uma carta via E-Mail no nthintyandex. ru e me fazer perguntas que você está interessado. Vou tentar responder o mais rápido possível. Boa sorte no seu comércio Com os melhores cumprimentos, Anthony Schneider. Forex Segredos comerciais por um comerciante profissional Este site é baseado nos livros 8220Forex Segredos comerciais de um comerciante profissional ou o que B. Williams, A. Elder e J. Schwager não contaram sobre o Forex Para comerciantes8221. Análise técnica do MasterForex-V Trading System Entrada e saída de pontos na Forex Trading Estes livros destinam-se a pessoas que se familiarizaram com os princípios de negociação Forex e que desejam aprender a ganhar dinheiro sistematicamente com o Forex Market. Domingo, 29 de abril de 2007 O ponto de pivô do par de moedas é uma das chaves na negociação no Forex. Em primeiro lugar, deixe-nos apresentar as seguintes designações (noções), necessárias para o assunto. Alto é o máximo no dia anterior. Baixo é o mínimo no dia anterior. Fechar é o preço do fechamento no dia anterior. De um modo geral, existem três critérios principais. 1. Existe a reserva de estoque (intervalo de cruzeiro) - ou seja, a diferença entre Baixo e Alto pela sessão de negociação. Por exemplo, no que diz respeito ao par GBPUSD, essa diferença pode exceder 100 pontos em um dia de negociação. 2. O leitor também deve considerar o ponto de reversão do movimento do par de moedas (o ponto de pivô) na sessão diária de negociação. Assim, é fácil calcular o lucro possível que um comerciante pode obter regularmente. 3. Se a tendência é o amigo (ver Livro 1), é necessário trabalhar ao longo da direção da tendência. Nessas condições, a detecção dos pontos de pivô da tendência pode evitar perdas que podem ser condicionadas pelos seguintes fatores 8226 Uma mudança na direção da tendência. 8226 Além disso, essa concepção dos pontos de pivô da tendência nos permite entender quando um acordo deve ser aberto em uma nova tendência - ou seja, no início do movimento do par de moedas, mas não no meio dela. O autor, especialmente, não recomenda abrir um acordo no final de uma nova tendência. Resumidamente, a habilidade de detectar o ponto de pivô real é necessária para a obtenção regular de lucros no Forex (por piedade, o conhecimento é insuficiente). O sistema dado faz a base das táticas Pivot Points, conhecidas em todo o mundo (em detalhes, veja speculator-fin. rupage. phpid64). O ponto de pivô pode ser calculado de acordo com a fórmula: Pivot (HighLowClose) 3 (as designações apresentadas são apresentadas acima). Após o cálculo de Pivot, pode-se determinar os níveis de resistência e suporte de acordo com as fórmulas a seguir: R12Pivot - Low S12Pivot - High R2Pivot (R1 - S1) S2Pivot - (R1-S1) R3High 2 (Pivot - Low) S3 Low - 2 (High - Pivot) Aqui R1, R2, R3 são os níveis de resistência S1, S2, S3 são os níveis de suporte. Assim, em sua essência, as táticas Pivot Points são binárias (binomiais). Ou seja, o próximo passo é a continuação lógica do anterior. O ponto de reversão (pivô) é a pedra angular desse movimento. A tendência está acontecendo. Posteriormente, o ponto de reversão (pivô) da tendência dada está sendo deslocado. Não sem uma razão, todos os bancos de primeira classe e instituições de fundo usam cálculos tão simples durante 50 anos e mais (veja forum. fxclub. orgshowthread. phpt26915). Resumidamente, essa tática clássica de Pivot Points é bem conhecida em todo o mundo. No entanto, a aplicação ainda não poderia alterar a proporção de comerciantes bem sucedidos para perdedores (120). Agora, o leitor deve tentar ver as desvantagens do método clássico de detecção de Pivot Points. O objetivo é entender as vantagens da técnica Pivot Points de acordo com o sistema Masterforex-V. 1. Como se pode escolher um período de tempo apropriado para calcular o máximo (ou mínimo) e o preço do fechamento. É preciso ter em mente que o mercado Forex está funcionando 24 horas por dia regularmente. Ou seja, na Europa, os pivôs da América e da Ásia são diferentes nas mesmas condições. A razão é que as três variáveis ​​mencionadas (High, Low, Close) são diferentes em vários países. Deixe-nos enfatizar novamente. High é o máximo do dia anterior Low é o mínimo do dia anterior Close é o preço do fechamento no dia anterior. Por exemplo, pode-se dar uma olhada em um gráfico que descreve o movimento do par USDJPY durante os dias 22 e 24 de maio de 2006. Aqui está claramente descrito que os pivôs do próximo dia em Moscou, Tóquio, Londres e Nova York seriam cardinalmente diferentes. Evidentemente, está condicionado pela diferença nos dias de calendário. Conseqüentemente, todos os três componentes dos Pivot Points clássicos são retratados na expressão submetida acima (HighLowClose) 3). Os pontos pivô são calculados aritmeticamente. O resultado é, em vez disso, uma magnitude média aritmética (como a média móvel) do que a determinação de um ponto real, após o cruzamento do qual a moeda faz logicamente um impulso (salto) na direção oposta. Por exemplo, a magnitude da média aritmética do pivô pode ser igual a 50 do recuo. Como é evidente, esse valor não pode ser útil em um apartamento. Além disso, pode até ser nocivo no apartamento se o recuo puder chegar aos 62 e 76. Por exemplo, um comerciante pode abrir um acordo em 50 recuar contra a tendência. Ao mesmo tempo, a moeda no 62-recoil faz a curva U (reversão) para a continuação da tendência anterior. Por exemplo, o leitor pode observar o Gráfico 2.4.2. Este número indica claramente que, em 6 de junho de 2006, o EURUSD havia caído do máximo local em 1,2981 para 1,2922. Depois disso, aumentou 76 até 1.2962. Além disso, dentro da tendência intra-dia, o par de moedas subiu até o ponto 1.2594. Aproximadamente, isso faz cerca de 400 pontos. Além disso, o leitor deve levar em consideração os seguintes fatores. Durante um dia, uma moeda pode cruzar o Pivot Point em direção a diferentes direções várias vezes. É por isso que o Pivot Point clássico não pode ser considerado como um ponto real, no qual os negócios devem ser abertos. Por exemplo, vamos examinar o movimento do par EURUSD em 14 de junho de 2006 (ver Gráfico 2.4.3 - Gráfico M-15). Para começar pelo movimento do par de moedas em 13 de junho de 2006, o pivô fez (1.2617 1.2529 1.2545) 3 1.2564). Um pivô deve ser dinâmico. O autor afirma o seguinte. Um par de moedas pode passar por 70-100 pontos na sessão de negociação europeia. Na sessão americana, o pivô deve mudar seu valor - como o verdadeiro (real) ponto de reversão. Por exemplo, pode ser o início da correção de reversão do valor anterior do Pivô. Sob tais condições, um comerciante pode fechar seus negócios antes do início da reversão em questão. Caso contrário, um comerciante pode manter um negócio aberto ao longo da tendência mais adiante (um acordo de longo prazo). Isto é possível se o preço não cruzasse o Pivot para a direção inversa (oposta). Vamos examinar um gráfico que descreve o movimento de par GBPUSD durante os dias 29 a 30 de junho de 2006. Como se pode ver, os pares de moeda romperam o Pivot Point durante a tendência semanal. No entanto, esses pares de moedas não cruzaram o ponto de pivô para a direção oposta durante a tendência da sessão - apesar do fato de que esses pares de moeda passaram por várias centenas de pontos durante um dia e meio. Em intervalos de tempo diferentes, o pivô deve indicar diferentes pontos. É preciso distinguir a reversão na tendência intra-dia da reversão da tendência intra-semana. Então, novamente, a tendência de duração de várias semanas apresenta o padrão principalmente diferente - e assim por diante. No entanto, de acordo com a abordagem clássica do problema Pivot-Points, apenas um valor é considerado - ou seja, o do dia anterior. Portanto, há logicamente a seguinte questão. A reversão de qual tendência o pivô faz novamente. O leitor deve ter em mente que esse pivô é calculado de acordo com a fórmula acima dada (HighLowClose) 3 no dia anterior. R. Axel (da Dow Jones Agency) desenvolveu sua própria técnica do cálculo do pivô quando os níveis do dia anterior não se enquadram nesta fórmula (HighLowClose) 3. Esta discrepância também confirma que o método clássico de determinar Pivot Points é imperfeito. Pode-se tirar as seguintes conclusões. Os exemplos acima indicados ilustram claramente a principal diferença entre abordagens para a noção de Pivot Point como um ponto real de reversão de pares de moedas no Forex. Ou seja, há a abordagem dos clássicos Forex e, em contraste com isso, o ponto de vista Masterforex-Vs. De acordo com este último sistema, os seguintes procedimentos devem ser feitos. 1. É preciso calcular a correção e reversão em vários TF - para começar a partir da sessão intra-dia (M15) e até várias semanas (D1). Isso representa claramente a diferença entre a correção e a reversão. Por exemplo, as seguintes situações podem ocorrer. 8226 A reversão pode ocorrer durante a tendência da sessão quando o movimento do par de moedas não excede Pivot em uma tendência semanal, o que é igual à correção da sessão semanal, mas não à reversão. 8226 A reversão pode ocorrer durante a tendência da sessão quando o movimento do par de moedas excede Pivot na tendência semanal. É o primeiro sinal da reversão que pode ocorrer dentro da tendência semanal. 2. Essa correlação entre os dois tipos de tendências nos permite fazer o seguinte. 8226 Para ganhar lucro durante a tendência da sessão. 8226 Para entender a dualidade (binaridade) na direção do movimento do par de moedas (a continuação ou cancelamento (abolição) dentro de uma tendência de sessão ou tipos mais longos deles 3. O 50-recuo indica não a inversão da tendência, mas mudanças quantitativas na Isto está implícito quer no desenvolvimento adicional do movimento do par de moedas quanto na transição do par dado para o apartamento. De acordo com o Masterforex-V, é preciso correlacionar essas tendências com outros fatores - como o tempo de movimento, a correlação entre a moeda aliada Pares e níveis técnicos em vários TF, etc. Agora, considere este problema como é apresentado na Masterforex-V Trading Academy. Novamente, é preciso dar uma olhada no gráfico em que o movimento do par EURUSD no período de 5-6 de junho de 2006 é retratado . O leitor deve tentar detectar Pivot Points por si mesmo. 8226 Pivot Points na tendência do dia do dia 8226 Pivot Points na sessão de tendências semanais. Esta informação é conveniente. Por isso, pode-se entender o seguinte Fatos (e fazer uso deles). 1. pode-se detectar o ponto em que a tendência intra-dia do urso começa 2. pode-se detectar o ponto onde o início da tendência semanal do urso pode ser confirmado com certeza. 3. Em pode ver em que pontos a tendência correções pesadas (fortes) - ou o recuo da tendência - pode ocorrer. 4. Pode-se compreender as condições para a reversão da tendência e a mudança do tipo de urso para o touro. No entanto, isso não aconteceu no caso em questão. 5. Além disso, um comerciante deve levar em conta a abolição do ponto de reversão (falha). Em relação a este aspecto, pode-se declarar um acordo por um longo período. Masterforex-V Trading Academy em inglês - masterforex-v. su Para o trabalho no Forex, todos os dias, cada comerciante deve detectar níveis técnicos de resistência e suporte. Como já foi mencionado nos capítulos anteriores, a detecção de níveis técnicos de resistência e suporte é bastante complicada. Um comerciante (e o iniciante especialmente) deve diferenciar claramente os níveis de vários pares de moedas. A partir desses critérios, pode-se projetar um plano comercial para a sessão de negociação e desenvolver as táticas de trabalho diárias. Suponho que os níveis técnicos mais ótimos sejam enviados por Axel Rudolph da agência Dow Jones Newswires. Há um exemplo dos níveis técnicos em 7 de julho de 2006. De acordo com a análise técnica dada aos mercados de moeda europeus por Axel Rudolph da agência Dow Jones Newswires, o USD descerá (gota) - veja as cartas em movimento feitas em 7 de julho, 2006 por 24 horas. EURUSD EURGBP EURJPY EUR SWISSI. A 3ª resistência 1.2914 0.6997 148.12 1.5766 A 2 ª resistência 1.2842 0.6988 147.80 1.5742 A 1ª resistência 1.2789 0.6968 147.50 1.5713 O ponto de inversão (pivô) 1.2775 0.6957 147.15 1.5699 O primeiro suporte1.2758 0.6942 146.96 1.5689 O 2º suporte 1.2730 0.6920 146,55 1,5669 O 3º suporte 1,2685 0,6913 146,20 1,5650 Vamos examinar o movimento do par EURUSD durante o dia. O par visa a resistência menor (acessório) no nível 1.2789 (o nível de correção de Fibonacci é de 61,8). Se esse nível for interrompido, o par chegará ao ponto 1.2842. Para este par, o primeiro nível de suporte está localizado no nível 1.2758 (o mínimo no domingo). Se, ao contrário das expectativas, esse nível será interrompido, o par pode testar a força do suporte menor (acessório, segunda ordem) no nível 1.2730. No gráfico semanal. O movimento do par EURUSD é representado. É uma tendência ascendente. O movimento do par EURGBP é apresentado no gráfico diário. Pode-se esperar que o par alcance (chegar) a resistência secundária no nível 0.6968. Se esse nível for interrompido, o par visará a resistência no ponto 0.6988. O 1º nível de suporte está localizado em 0,6942. Se esse nível de suporte não resistir (stand up), o par de moedas terá como objetivo o suporte de nível em 0.6920. No gráfico semanal. . Pode-se ver o movimento do par EURGBP. É uma tendência ascendente. O movimento do par EURJPY é representado no gráfico diário. Este par visa a resistência menor (acessório) em 147.50 - até o primeiro suporte em 146.96 não é quebrado (o mínimo diário na terça-feira). Excedendo o valor de 147,50, o par visará a resistência menor (acessório) em 147.80. Abaixo de 146,96, os níveis de suporte são 146,55 e 146,20. O movimento do par EURJPY é representado no gráfico semanal. É uma tendência ascendente. Além disso, o movimento do par EURSWISSI é representado no gráfico diário. O par novamente coloca em julgamento a menor resistência (acessório) no nível 1.5713 (é o máximo no meio dado). Se este nível for quebrado, este par irá testar a durabilidade da resistência no nível 1.5742. O primeiro suporte está localizado no nível 1.5689. O próximo é colocado em 1.5669 (o valor mínimo na manhã de quinta-feira). Existe o movimento de par EURSWISSI representado no gráfico semanal. É a tendência ascendente. E agora consideramos os seguintes pares de moedas: GBPUSD USDJPY USDSWISSI Dólar Aussie DAG. A 3ª resistência1,8496 116,67 1,2446 0,7510 A 2ª resistência 1,8475 116,01 1,2396 0,7503 A 1ª resistência. 1.8415 115.84 1.2364 0.7481 O ponto de reversão 1.8370 115.20 1.2292 0.7464 O primeiro suporte 1.8320 115.02 1.2262 0.7449 O 2º suporte 1.8270 114.34 1.2197 0.7439 O 3º suporte. 1.8200 114.00 1.2135 0.7405 Vamos examinar o movimento de par GBPUSD durante esse dia. O par visa a resistência menor (acessório) no nível 1.8415. Se esse nível for interrompido, o par irá apontar para o ponto 1.8475. Para este par de moedas, o suporte menor (acessório) está localizado no nível 1.8320 (o máximo em 23 de junho). O próximo nível de suporte faz 1,8270 (o máximo em 27 de junho). Existe o movimento de par GBPUSD representado no gráfico semanal. É o recuo do nível de suporte. Examinemos o movimento do par USDJPY durante um dia. O par de moedas está decrescendo novamente, visando o suporte menor (acessório) em 115.02. Se esse nível for quebrado, o par de moedas terá como objetivo o nível de suporte em 114.34. A primeira resistência está localizada em 115.84 (o máximo no meio). Agora nos debruçamos no movimento semanal do par USDJPY. O aumento é dificultado pelo nível de resistência. Examinemos o gráfico diário do movimento USDSWISSI. Pode-se esperar que o par desça até o suporte menor (acessório) em 1.2262, até que o crescimento seja restringido pela resistência em 1.2364. Se esse nível de resistência for quebrado, um aumento neste par de moedas na sexta-feira pode restringir a resistência menor (acessório) em 1.2396. O suporte está localizado em 1.2197, que é inferior ao nível 1.2262 (o mínimo no meio). Novamente, pode-se estudar o movimento do par USDSWISSI, representado no gráfico semanal. O aumento é dificultado pelo nível de resistência. Existe o movimento do par USD do dólar australiano representado no gráfico diário. Este par visa a resistência menor (acessório) em 0.7481. Se esse nível for interrompido, esse par terá como alvo as marcas 0.7503 e 0.7510. Estes pontos são os máximos em 9 de junho e 12 de junho, respectivamente. O suporte de 1 ° menor (acessório) está localizado no nível 0.7449 (o mínimo na manhã de sexta-feira). Este nível de suporte deve aguentar (sobreviver) se o par de moedas testar esse nível de força (durabilidade). Se esse nível for interrompido, o suporte menor (acessório) em 0.7339 prejudicará a decadência desse par de moedas. Existe o movimento do par USD do dólar australiano representado no gráfico semanal. Pode-se ver o recuo do nível de suporte. O ponto de recuo (U-turn, pivô) é igual à soma dos preços máximos e mínimos do fechamento de negócios no dia anterior, dividido por três. Estudantes da Masterforex Trading Academy desenvolveram um indicador - a sessão do Pivot RS. It is intended for saving time that could be spent on daily marking points of recoil ( U-turn, pivot ) and 3 levels of the resistance and support (see the levels of the resistance and support by Axel RS - forum. masterforex-v. orgindex. phpshowforum24 . We now dwell on the advantages of the technical analysis given by Axel Rudolph to Forex market. 1.For a trader, it is so easily to see the reversal (pivot) point and 3 levels of resistance support as regards the 8 basic currency pairs at Forex. Surely, such approach economizes the time. 2.One should pay attention to Axels analytical review title. The further currency movement at that very day must be taken into account as well. Rudolph Alex has clearly exposed the currency pair movement direction at the beginning of trading at Forex. 3.In the charts that concern June 7, 2006, one can watch how the ally currency pairs, located place beyond the pivot, have managed to break through the levels of resistance support 1, 2, 3. It is conditioned by decrease in USD rate. 4.Let us dwell on the possibility of gaining profit at Forex. As one can judge by the above-given examples, a trader can gain profit with the currency pair movement to start from the 1 st and up to the 3 rd level of supportresistance. The comments . The reader should pay attention to dispute between Masterforex-V Trading Academy students and a leader of Forex Brokers Forex Club. This Forex Brokers, every day issuing Dow Jones Newswires, somehow manages to keep on forgetting to submit the analytical reviews that contain Rudolph Alexs levels to its traders. Only students of Masterforex-V Trading Academy have made one of the largest Forex Brokers of Forex club in Russia to include Rudolph Axels analytical investigations into Dow Jones Newswires for the traders. We now dwell on drawbacks of technical levels at Forex, submitted by Dow Joness agency. 1. Any system cannot be reliable if one does not understand the essence of it. So, what one can do when Axels levels would be not issued tomorrow. Otherwise, R. Axel can be mistaken. 2. How one can on ones own detect R. Axels levels in several hours before the news publication. 3. How one can manage to know the levels of resistancesupport in half of an hour earlier than R. Axel would publish it By the way, students of Masterforex-V Trading Academy somehow do get this information earlier than it appears in Dow Jones Newswires ( news line ), issued by leading Forex Brokers in Russia 4. You can calculate the currency pair pivot (the point of reversal) according to the following technique: the point of reversal is equal to the sum of the maximum, minimum and the price of closing at the previous day, divided by three. However, this point will never coincide with the value, which R. Axel would submit you the next morning. Is not it true How to calculate the pivot so that to make both these values to coincide 5. Which other techniques can be used in order to check the correctness of R. Axels levels. For instance, on July 7, 2006 the fourth level of resistance for the EURGBP pair was calculated before the issue of news. It made the local peak in American session. (GBP was at 1.8540 EUR was at 1.2860). There is another example. On July 10, 2006 R. Axel has pointed out to the 3 rd level of support of GBP as 1.8415. At the same time, the majority of participants of Masterforex-V Trading Academy closed their bargains at 1.8365 - it was the local minimum on that very day (July 10, 2006). How one can detect a local minimum of the trading day with the accuracy up to 1 point in the first half of the trading session when GBP has moved through 160 points Aiming at gaining profits regularly, students of Masterforex-V Trading Academy study such specificities. Surely, the detection of pivot point and the 3-4 levels of resistancesupport is necessary for gaining profits regularly. However, the knowledge just of this method is not enough. Masterforex-V Trading Academy in English - masterforex-v. su Recoil from the technical level. In its essence, this part is dedicated to the following. 1. To scrutinize the classicists of Forex approach to the problem of determining the difference between true and false technical level breakouts. 2. To expose drawbacks, inherent in each of the classical systems, which cause traders losses at Forex. 3. By giving analysis to these problems, to elaborate methods of their solution. One can describe the todays state of the technical level analysis at Forex as the following. 1. A unified method of detecting technical levels at Forex is not elaborated yet (see the Part Levels of support and resistance in Masterforex-V TS. 2. A technique that could permit us to estimate whether the breakout is true or false still is not developed as well. One can mark out the two types of the currency pair movement at Forex : a). There can happen the true (real) breakout through the technical level, after which a currency pair is moving towards the next level. b). On the other hand, a recoil from the technical level, a false breakout included, is possible. For the traders work, the following aspects are important. 1. There exists a flat - i. e. a lateral trend between the first levels of the resistance and support. When a currency gets into this price corridor, its further movement direction is uncertain. 2. By definition, the trend is the directed movement of currency pairs as the result of the true ( real ) breakout of the flat technical level. a). If the currency pair movement is directed upwards, it is the breakout through the 1 st level of resistance ( the breakout upwards ). b). If the currency pair movement is directed downwards, it is the breakout through the level of support (the breakout downwards ). It is clearly depicted in the charts given below. Chart 2.1. The false breakoutthrough the level of resistance and return to the flat zone. Chart 2.2. The true breakout of the level of support and the beginning of the bear trend . There are the rules that a trader must observe. 1. Under the conditions of the flat . a) Either to be out of the market (especially if the trend range is narrower than the average statistical stock reserve ( cruising range ) for a given currency pair per the trading session). b). Otherwise, one can work with the recoil - i. e. to make deals on buy from level of support and on sell from level of resistance under the condition of the flat broad ranges, approximately equal to the average statistical stock reserve ( cruising range ) for a given currency pair per the trading session. 2. Within the trend, I would recommend to work only towards its direction (a trend is my friend). 3. The true breakout through the technical level indicates the beginning of a trend. UMA). That is, if it is the breakout through the level of resistance, the bull trend is beginning. B). Otherwise, if it is the breakout through the level of support, the bear trend is developing. 4. The trend development ( course ) is the directed movement from one level of resistancesupport to another. It is depicted in Chart 2.2 . After breaking through the 1 st level of support, the currency is rushing from one level to another - till the recoil. It means the non-breaking through any of the next levels or the false breakout through one of them. In Chart .2.2 . the false breakout through the 3 rd level of support (the flat) is depicted as well. It indicates that the given trend movement is temporally arrested or it has come to the end. 5. The trend wave attenuation ( the end of it ) is the trend directed movement turning into the lateral movement (flat). The flat is characterized by non-breaking through a level of resistancesupport or the false breakout (the recoil). In Chart.2.2 . one can see the false breakout through the level of support 3. 6. The market is under the conditions of the non-stop movement. Therefore, in a trading session, the trend end in the form of a flat makes the starting point of the trend further development. It is depicted in Chart 2.2 - between the levels of support 2 and 3. As it is shown in Chart 2.3 . the support 2 turns into the resistance 1.A local minimum turns into the support 1. Hence, the next trading session can be still carried out under the conditions of a flat, the levels of supportresistance being strictly determined. Otherwise, the ex-support 2, after breaking through the resistance 1, can open the bull trend. Respectively, if the support will be broken through, the bear trend will start. Chart 2.3. The levels of resistance and support . Thus, all rules that can guarantee the profitable practice at Forex can be briefly formulated as the following. 8226 One must understand (feel) the difference between the levels of support and resistance (see the previous part). 8226 One must know the rules of the true breakout through the levels and recoil from them, the false breakout included. 8226 One must watch the correlation between the flat and the trend in various timeframes (TF). Comentários. As one can see, the above-given rules that concern the flat-trend correlation are rather simple. Hence, there arises the following question. Why do more than 95 of traders, who know these rules, lose at Forex The answer is evident. That is, one must perfectly distinct the true breakout through the technical level from a false one. 8226 When the technical level breakout is true, one must open a deal in the direction of the trend commenced. 8226 When the technical level breakout is false, one must open a deal towards the opposite direction. It is so simple ( evident ), isnt it It is just necessary to clearly distinct ( tell ) the true breakout signs from the false ones. We now examine how the difference between the true and false breakouts through the technical levels is explained by the classicists of Forex . Generally speaking, the classicists state the following. The true breakout, in contrast to the false one, occurs when the trading volume is increasing. In the case of the false breakout, the trading volume does not increase. In Exchange trade basis, Alexander Elder states the following. While opening a deal on buy, the best situation is when the breakout upwards in the day chart would be confirmed by the technical indices that could indicate the formation of a new upwards-trend beginning in the weekly chart. Larger trading volumes are inherent in the true breakouts. On the opposite, as a rule, false breakouts are characterized by small trading volumes. In addition, when the breakout is true, the technical indices reach new maximumminimum values towards the direction of the trend development. The false breakout is often characterized by the divergence between prices and indices. A certain price corridor is more inherent in the market than a trend. The majority of breakouts through the price corridor bounds are false. Such breakouts can involve into the game a gambler who follows the trend - earlier than the prices return to the standard. The false breakout is the amateurs plague. At the same time, professionals adore such false breakouts. Neimans viewpoint is the following. In their majority, false signals can be checked ( detected ) with the help of the volume indices. In the first ( primal ) currency movement towards the level of supportresistance, the trading volumes are increasing. At the last stage in currency movement towards the level of supportresistance, such volumes are diminishing. That is, at the beginning of this reversal figure development, the volume is increasing due to the trend previous price movement. When the figure development is coming to the end, the volume is increasing due to the price movement in the direction, opposite to the previous trend. It is the sign that nobody is interested in prolonging the old trend. In a chart, it can be depicted as follows: L. Borcelino in his Manual of de-trading (see forum. masterforex-v. orgviewforum. phpf9 ) presents another characteristic of the double peakminimum. The second peakminimum is formed with a trading volume smaller than the first one. In fact, the second peakminimum cannot be as highdeep as the first one. Nevertheless, it is the repeated attempt at moving towards the same direction. And what is more, such double peaksminimums can develop their 3 rd. 4 th. etc. waves ( versions ). Such doubletriple peaksminimums can be formed within a short period - as well as during a much longer time interval - from several minutes and up to ten years. In contrast to the false breakout, the true one is characterized by the trading day closing above the technical level breakout. This position must be hold up not less than during 2 days. J. Murphy in his Technical analysis of future markets also investigated the problem of criteria of the true breakout through the trend line. It is not a simple problem. In detecting such criteria, subjectivity of a kind is unavoidable. As a rule, the trend line breakout via the price of closing of bargain ( deal ) is more important than just a breakout within a day. There are price filters. They condition ( prescribe ) that the trend line must be broken through by a certain value. In addition, there exist time filters. Among them, the most commonly used is the so-called the rule of two days. In contrast to the false breakout, the true one is characterized by the trading day closing behind ( above ) the technical level broken through. This position must be hold up not less than during 5 days. In his Technical analysis. The full course, D. Swagger studied the problem of signs of a truefalse breakout. According to him, the following situation is rather common ( ordinary ). Prices just slightly deviate from the original trading range and only for several days. Later on they return back. One of the reasons of such pattern is the following. The market participants want to safeguard ( insure ) themselves against the heavy movement in prices after the trading range breakout. Therefore, they issue protective stop-orders in the vicinity to the trading range. The result can be the following. Sometimes even an inessential movement in prices towards the outwards of the trading range can stimulate ( provoke ) realization of a considerable number of the protective stop-orders. As soon as this primary flow of orders is saturated, the breakout comes to an end - if it is not strengthened by fundamental reasons and support purchases. Otherwise, the breakout can sustain if there are large deals on sell in the case of the breakout through the lowest bound ( bottom ). Such sells can fortify ( strengthen ) this tendency. One must take into account such specificities in the price behavior. As an indicator of the tendency beginning, the trading range breakout probability is much higher if the prices still remain beyond the range after several days - e. g. after 5 days. When waiting for the confirmation of the breakout, one can partially miss the profit per several days at the beginning of the tendency. All the same, this tactics helps eliminating many false signals. In contrast to the false breakout, the true one is characterized by overcoming of the 3- movement behind ( above ) the technical level broken through. According to J. Murphy, sometimes even the breakout with the price of closing is not enough to be sure that the true breakout through the trend line has happened. To exclude false signals, the majority of analysts use various time - and price filters. The 3-breakout makes an example of a price filter. Mainly this criterion is used for estimating a long-term trend line breakout. The price of closing must leave the trend line not less than by 3. However, this rule is unacceptable to some financial futures - e. g. to deals with interest rates. D. Swagger mentions that other signs of the confirmation can be used - such as the minimum percentage change in the price. T. Chand has studied the channel breakout (see On the other side of the technical analysis - 1997). His rule of entering is the following. If the todays closing is higher than the maximum price in the last 20 days, one must buy at the closing. In the case of the downward position, one must sell at the closing. Going out of a long deal must be realized at a new 5-days minimum or with the stop-loss. Going out of a short deal must be realized at a new 5-days maximum or with the stop-loss. The stop-loss makes 1500. This is a typical trend-following system. In Encyclopedia of trading strategies, D. Cats and D. McCormick examined breakouts on the basis of prices of closing. The test 1 is based on the channel breakout. In this system only the prices of closing are used. Here one does not take into account the entrance with the market price into the stock exchange tomorrows opening and the deal costs (the commission ( brokerage ) and slip). In this system, the rules are the following. If a current position is short or neutral and market price is higher than the price of closing in the last n days, one must buy at the tomorrows opening. On the contrary, if a current position is long or neutral and market price is lower than the minimum price of closing in the last n days, one must sell at the tomorrows opening (open a short position). The only parameter is inherent in this system. It is n (the number of days under analysis). Chart 2.5. The breakout of upper bounds of narrow trading ranges (GBP September, 1990). Under the condition of a heavy trend movement, a deal may be opened even after 5() days. This case is hardly can be contested. However, what must be done in the other situation, examined by Swagger as an example of the analysis of another type. Chart 2.6. The breakout of the previous minimum as a signal of sell. Soybean oil. Continuous futures. Chart 2.7. Support at the level of the previous relative maximum and resistance at the level of the previous relative minimum (DM, continuous futures). How to correlate such recommendations given by Swagger with the principle of work on the breakout of the resistancesupport level only on the 6 th () day We now dwell on the difference between breakouts through the resistancesupport levels under the conditions of 8226 the strong signal (), 8226 the signal of intermediate strength (), 8226 the weak signal (). It is the classification according to E. Neiman in his The traders small encyclopedia (see forum. masterforex. orgviewforum. phpf9 ). I conventionally divide such signals into the three groups. It makes it easier to understand Neimans approach towards determining the signal strength - and, respectively, to find out the strong and weak points of this theory. UMA). Within the trend, the signal is strong (). B). In the period of a flat, the signal is moderate (). C). In the direction opposite to that of the trend, the signal is weak (). These types of the signal are depicted in Chart 2.8. Chart 2.8. The signal types . The recoil from the level occurs, and the false breakout does happen more often than the true one. It is the work with recoils from each of the technical levels. Again, let us return to On the other side of the technical analysis by T. Chand. He has examined the recoil ( rolling-backsystem ). According to the old rule, the deal must be made on buy when the recoil is directed towards the support. Many traders like such situations. Really, the risk is minimal, whereas the potential profit could be rather high. On the contrary, one can buy in case of a strong trend and sell when the trend is weak . The key point consists in distinguishing the recoil from support. The recoil is a slight correction of the trend. The recoil kinds can vary. For instance, one can determine the recoil as the currency movement in the last 3 days. Otherwise, it can be regarded as the approach to a moving average (MA). The latter can be considered as that of 20 or 50 days duration. It can be a simple or exponential one. All the same, the price can touch the average or cross it. The entrance into the 1-band in the vicinity to this MA is also possible. After scrutinizing the conditions, one can decide where the buy could be profitable. For instance, it can be done at the tomorrows opening, at the yesterdays maximum, or at the maximum chosen within 5 days. A lot of variations of this system can be developed in this way. First, we will regard the recoil as a new minimum within 5 days under the condition of the upward-directed trend and new maximum within 5 days under the condition of the downward-directed trend. Further, we must determine the notion of a trend. The minimum must remain above the 50-day simple MA, whereas the maximum must be below this MA. Other versions are possible. A trend coming into the existence must be confirmed by ADX-14 exceeding 30. Otherwise, as an index of recoil, one can use RSI-14 or stochasticity. Getting into the critical zone, the reversal and leaving this critical zone make the signal. In Stock exchange secrets, L. Connors and L. Rushky state the following. In trading on the deviations ( oscillations ), the most appropriate model is the trading on the trial of the previous peaks (maximums or minimums). Such tests enable us to indicate the double breakpoint ( rest-point, salient point ). Thus, one can find a perfect position for opening a deal. Under such conditions, the risk of losses is minimal. The detection ( test, probe ) of a minimum, where the long-term position must be opened, can take place slightly higher or lower. All the same, the support cannot be established before the realization of the detection ( test, probe ). The majority of our models has become formed exactly after the successful detection ( test, probe ) - i. e. after the previous maximumminimum approbation by the market and returning to this value again. Chart 2.9. An example of the double breakpoint ( rest-point, salient point ). T. DeMarque has examined the difference between the true and false breakouts through the technical levels. He has emphasized the importance of estimating whether the intra-day price breakouts are true. TD-points must be chosen correctly. TD-line must be plotted from the right to the left. The price guideposts must be calculated. After this, the three way-outs must be considered: 1. There can appear the signs of the tendency reversal. 2. A substantial shift in the correlation between the demand and proposal is possible. 3. The price guidepost realization is important as well. Besides, there is another factor, to which the attention should be paid. One must consider whether the intra-day price breakout is true. This is especially important. I regard my investigations in this area as a substantial contribution into improving of the technique of choice of a moment of entering the market - and leaving it. What is more, the given principles are applicable in other methods of the technical analysis as well. The following situation is rather typical. Traders take a position at points of the trend line breakout to-be. Than they with horror watch that prices stop and start to move in the opposite direction. This results in substantial losses. However, those very traders keep on doing the same mistake, not thinking about the origins of it. False breakouts are always rather frequent. It is traders stumbling block, because of which some of traders totally refuse to use the trend line. A techniques of developing TD-lines has somewhat improved this situation. Nevertheless, false breakouts do happen. As far as I know, a technique of estimating whether the breakout is false or true is not developed yet. We now dwell on the breakout qualifiers. TD-qualifier of the breakout 1. The signal of buy is true if the price of closing has decreased the day before the signal arrival. The signal of sell is true if the price of closing has increased the day before the signal arrival TD-qualifier of the breakout 2. The signal of buy is true if the price of opening is higher than the price of breakout. The signal of sell is true if the price of opening is lower than the price of breakout. TD-qualifier of the breakout 3. The signal of buy is true if the price of closing on the eve of the breakout, summed up with the difference between the price of closing and the minimum price in the same day (or the price of closing the two days before the breakout if it is lower) is lower than the price of breakout. The signal of sell is true if the difference between the price of closing on the eve of breakout and the difference between the maximal prices of closing in the same day (or the price of closing the two days before the breakout if it is higher) exceeds the price of breakout. I have discovered three TD Breakout Qualifiers. There are two price models, formed the day before the probable breakout. In addition, there is one model, which is formed in the day of breakout. In particular, I have drawn the following conclusion. If a market is in the state of oversell (overbuy) the day before the breakout, there increases the possibility that the amount ( pressure ) of buyers (sellers) all the same will not become diminished after the breakout. This makes just illusion of the market strength (weakness). Giving analysis to the price behavior on the eve of breakout, I have discovered the following. If the price of closing on the eve of breakout upwards is lower than in the previous day, the probability of the true intra-day breakout increases. In this case, it can be recommended to open a position in the intra-day intersection (crossing) of the trend line. I determine this as TD Breakout Qualifier 1 (see Chart 1.37 ). In a way, TD Breakout Qualifier 3 is similar to TD Breakout Qualifier 1. Really, it also takes into account the price movement on the eve of the trend line breakout. However, in the case of TD Breakout Qualifier 3 one determines the difference between the maximum price and the price of closing on the eve of the trend line breakout downwards. Further this difference is subtracted from that very price of closing. It is the method of calculating the supply value. The demand value is calculated in the following way. The difference between the price of closing and the minimum price on the eve of the trend line breakout upwards is added tothat very price of closing (see Charts 2.10, 2.11 ( 143 and 144 )). The true breakout can be detected in the following way. One must find the difference between the price of closing on the eve the breakout upwards and the minimum price in that very day (or the price of closing in the previous day - if it is lower). Further it is necessary to add this difference to the price of closing in the day before the breakout. If the value obtained is lower than the price at the point of breakout, the breakout is considered true. If the value obtained is larger than the price at the point of breakout - most probably, the breakout is false In the given example (see Chart ), the difference between the price of closing and the minimum price on the eve of the breakout of TD-line of supply (A-B) is added to the price of closing in that very day. The value obtained is smaller than the price at the point of breakout. Consequently, the trend line breakout is true. In this chart TD-line of demand (A-B) is also drawn ( plotted ). In Chart (145 ), for determining whether the trend line breakout downwards is true, the use is made of the procedure, the sense of which is reversed with respect to the above-described one. First, one has to determine the difference between the price of closing and the price minimal on the eve of the supply line breakout upwards (A-B). Further, the price of closing in the same very day must be added to this difference. As one can see, the resulting value is smaller than the price at the breakout point. This confirms that the breakout is true. The principal drawbacks of the classical theory of distinguishing the true and false breakouts of technical levels at Forex from the viewpoint of Masterforex-V TS . Such drawbacks are the following. 1. The classical theory of the true and false breakouts of technical levels was developed not issuing from conditions of Forex money-market (where the trading volume was not taken into account). Some other markets were considered. 2. Even T. DeMarque has recognized that this approach is incorrect in total. This classicist has admitted the following. As far as he is concerned, he still doesnt know any technique that could permit traders to see whether the price breakout is true or false. One can judge by oneself. Really, it is evident that the deal opening directly after the previous day technical level breakout must be specified much more exactly. E. Neiman doesnt write about this aspect directly. However, his approach to the order opening is based on the conviction that a given breakout must happen along the trend development direction. This approach must be scrutinized much more closely. The reason is that the one of the keystone figures of reversal (such as either the head and shoulders, or the head and shoulders reversed) is purely the result of ( exactly indicates ) a local peak breakout of the previous day. Some traders try to play safe. Avoiding not getting into the head and shoulders figure, they open deals after 5 () days to start from the technical level breakout. In this connection, there arise the following questions. Surely, one could give analysis to broad markets post factum. In this case, one can choose heavy trends of the duration within 30-70 days or longer (as Swagger did it). Thus, one can recommend traders to open their deals in the 6 th day to start from the technical level breakout. However, whats about the real trading Under such conditions, a trader does not know the trend actual duration. For instance, see Chart . GBPUSD pair movement on June 30, 2006 can serve as an example. The support at 1.8000 has been broken through. After waiting for 5 days, one could open a deal in the vicinity to 1.7560 at the 6 th day - i. e. after the currency has already advanced more than the half-way in its movement (by 440 points). Now one could expect a local minimum at 1.7310 - to be more precise, at 1.7435. Exactly at this point, after the breakout thorough the previous day maximum, the currency has reversed. Thus, making use of the technique by Swagger one can gain just 125 points under the conditions of a strong trend (690 points). However, one must keep in mind that the reversal could happen earlier. That is, one losed 500 point in order to dogmatically stick to the rule not to open a deal during the first 5 days after the level breakout. As the result, a deal will be opened at the end of the currency movement or before the recoil. When a dogma does not correspond to the practice any more, it would be better to decline ( reject ) it, would not it We now dwell on the recoil system according to T. Chand in his book On the other side of the technical analysis). Notwithstanding all the positive aspects of this system, a very serious drawback is inherent in it. That is, within the framework of this system one cannot detect a point at which the recoil turns into the reversal. The theory of the level breakout . developed by D. Cats and D. McCormick in Encyclopedia of trading strategies, must be revised ( specified ) from the viewpoint of ( with respect to ) the price of closing in the previous day. That is, one can give hundreds of examples when the work according to the given technique is profitable at Forex. At the same time, there are also hundreds of disadvantageous situations - e. g. the breakout through a local peak in the previous day can result either in the reversal or in a very heavy recoil towards the direction, opposite to the level breakout. In the framework of the classical analysis given to Forex, the notions of technical levels of resistancesupport of tilted ( slant ) and horizontal channels are not clearly defined - they are just piled up. Hence, how can one tell the difference between these characteristics from those the features in common Elder was the first who attracted attention to the following problem. How to elaborate ones position in all the mess of true and false breakouts, trends and flats in different time frames The currency pair movement may be divided as following. b) trend recoils After this, all possible combinations of these three characteristics must be put on trial in various time-frames at least at 3 screens - as A. Elder has recommended. It is necessary to calculate the number of combinations. For instance, there is the combination 1. That is, the trend is in the minimal timeframe, whereas the flat is in the large-scale timeframe. At what points it must be determined whereas level breakouts are false or true Is it enough to use three screens ( displays ) according to Elder Maybe more screens would be preferable. As far as Im concerned, I work with 4 screens. What are the drawbacks and advantages of the given technique How different timeframes are correlated with one another under the following condition. That is, at ones point-of-sale terminal, there are 4 screens. However, one must take into account the quantity of timeframes much larger. What is the correlation between the technical levels of resistance and those of support, all of them being exposed at 4 screens In what way do the fundamental and technical analyses supplement each other How can a trader make use of the fundamental analysis from the viewpoint of its applying in the branch of the technical analysis, the problems of which are enumerated above Masterforex-V Trading Academy in English - masterforex-v. su Support and resistance are the known cornerstones in forex technicals, wherein: 1. a current forex rate (CFR) is surrounded by levels of: a). resistance being superior to CFR b). support being inferior to CFR. 2. a level breakthrough triggers a leap to a consecutive supportresistance 3. a false breakthrough is responsible for a rate backstroke (say, from resistance to support). Thus, having data on resistance and support levels and being armed with RS truefalse criteria, a trader grows faultless-entry skilled to ensure smooth level-to-level trading. To be found below is a graphic drawing of a flat followed by an RS updown breakthrough. In actual sample GBPUSD trade dated January, 31, 2006 the support breakthrough has triggered a bullish in-session trend. Simple, isnt it Affirmative at a glance, but 95 of traders loosing their forex deposits are calling for natural questions: 1. Whats the reason, the world traders are getting entangled in so a seemingly simple regularity 2. Whats the way of correct detection of RS levels for currencies to use to jet off from 3. What attributes are inherent to truefalse breach differentiation It is, thus, to be concluded that a trader will never achieve steady FX gains unless the answer is found to the above three simple questions. CLASSICAL BOOKS ON RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS Forex scholars books, when analyzed, are giving grounds why 95 of traders turn deposit-killers. The point is that under different technical scholars: a). fairly different understanding is being attached to support and resistance b). no distinct criteria (except Demarks technique) is in service to finding a support and a resistance c). there is no clear-cut interfacing between RS levels on different timeframes. Below is sort of understanding classification: 1. RS are understood by SOME SCHOLARS to be horizontal lines drawn along price highs and lows support and resistance are horizontal (or almost horizontal) lines linking several minima Fig.2. Support and resistance Legend E. Nayman using resistancesupport levels at trade station: 4. MOVING AVERAGES based resistancesupport levels. a). E. NAYMAN: Bollinger Bands are sort of peculiar supportresistance lines 5. ROUND NUMBERS being supportresistance levels a). E. LEFEVRE (view: Memories of an Exchange Profiteer forum. masterforex-v. orgviewforum. phpf9 ) underlined: Rates, having, for the first time, traveled 100, 200 or 300 points, are almost sure to cover additional 30 to 50 pips b). D. SCHWAGGER: One is to be especially cautious about dollar holdups. With USD781,25 best working on T-bonds and USD425 - on soybeans, temptation is raising to find optimum holdup for each market. It is advantageous to establish a round number to comfortably use it all of the markets. CLASSIFICATION OF WEAK AND STRONG RS LEVELS AS VIEWED BY FOREX SCHOLARS J. MURPHY classifies support and resistance (view Technical Analysis of Futures Markets, New York Institute of Finance Prentice Hall, 1986) proceeding from: price in-domain residence period (1) volume of trade (2) and price domain age (3). 1. The longer the price reciprocation period within a certain supportresistance area, the more critical the area. By way of an example, if a certain stagnation area observed a 3-week price updown movement with subsequent rally thereof, this support domain is more important than that having observed a 3-day price reciprocation. 2. Volume of trade is another means to evaluate importance of supportresistance. If, say, a support formation did involve a huge volume of trade, it means a huge number of contracts passing from hands to hands, hence the support levels is ranking high and visa versa: the less the volume of trade, the lower-ranking the support. 3. Still another supportresistance importance indicator is its age in relation to the present moment. Since we are dealing with traders reaction to market moves and to positions they have entered or have failed to enter, it is fairly clear, that the younger the event and the reaction thereto, the more important the event. Seven years later (in 1993), A. ELDER has confirmed 2 of 3 J. Murphys postulates dated back to 1986. His classification of resistancesupport levels is guided by: - number of test tangencies it sustained (the greater the number - the stronger the level). Within a fortnight an immediate supportresistance is formed within 2 months the level grows accustomed to by traders, thus attaining medium power within 2 years actually a stereotype is built radiating strong support and resistance. - price scatter dominating a supportresistance level (the wider the range thereof - the stronger the level). A wide-range turning-point price consolidation is similar to a high fence surrounding valuable property. A congestion zone equal to 1 of current price (4 points with SampP500 at 400 level) yields insignificant supportresistance, whereas a 3 area is responsible for medium levels with a 7 area possessing sufficient power to be a strong trend killer. - The greater the volume of trade in a supportresistance area, the stronger the levels. Huge volume within a congestion zone is indicative of numerous emotional jobbers involvement. As opposite, minor volumes point out traders indifference towards the level being intersected, hence being attribute of the levels deteriorated health. Weak supportresistance levels are capable of bringing a trend to a halt, while strong ones may appear trend reversers. Traders buy support and sell resistance, thus turning their impact into a self-justifying projection. SCHOLARS VIEW ON SUPPORTRESISTANCE SEATING POINTS 1. T. DEMARK recommends: - plotting resistance upon bid TD-points - plotting support upon ask TD-points. 2. D. SCHWAGER (view: Technical Analysis. Complete Course) insists on drawing resistance and support in the vicinity of prior lows and highs. Support and resistance are to be viewed as approximate areas rather, than exact levels. It is to be emphasized that any previous high is not at all a premonition of perspective prices dry up thereat or thereunder. Instead, it is indicative of a resistance to be expected near that level. By analogy, a previous low is not at all illustrative of further price declines halting thereat or thereabove. Instead, it is indicative of a support to be projected close to that level. Depicted below is a support zone governed by relative prior highs and lows concentration: gold, futures. Continued by D. Schwager: Some technical analysts use to treat previous highs and lows as being endowed with, sort of, holy significance. A previous high, being 1078, is deemed by them a strong resistance. In case the market displays a spike higher, say, as far as 1085, they reason the resistance to have been breached. Its not correct. Support and resistance are but to be looked upon as cloud-shaped areas rather than exact levels. 3. J. MURPHY resorts to plotting support and resistance in a local peak-wise fashion (i. e. by local highs and lows): A resistance level usually coincides with the previous peak level. 4. A. ELDER: Resistance and support are to be preferably plotted (see Fig. 13) through congestion zone margins (CZM) rather than through highs and lows. CZMs constitute traders mind-changing areas, whereas highs and lows are only reflective of panic among weakest jobbers. Continued by A. Elder: Beware of supportresistance false breaching, indicated as F in the above figure. Breaches are followed by amateurs, with professionals being opposite travel jobbers. Now, pay some attention to the charts right corner, where prices have bumped into strong resistance. Its high time to hunt for shorting with a stop-loss to be placed slightly above the resistance level. To be noted is a pronounced regularity, not referred to by A. Elder: the supportresistance levels drawn through previous local peaks are not extended by him after false breaching thereof. 4. D. SCHWAGER gives the following explanation when resorting to projection of 2 () inclined support and resistance levels: - Standard lines are usually drawn through price extrema (highs, lows), attributable to traders emotions, therefore these points may not reflect the markets real trend. - An inner trendline is to be plotted closest to the bulk of relative lows and relative highs, ignoring extreme points D. Schwager himself is the recognizer of the subjective nature inner trendline method, but in so doing he jumps to a very important conclusion that ordinary trendlines are: - far less helpful (), than inner trendlines. One of inner trendlines shortcomings is their inevitably random nature, even greater than that possessed by ordinary trendlines, being restricted by extreme highs and lows, at least. In practice, not infrequently, several options prove available as regards inner trendline plotting procedure (see Fig. 14). Nevertheless, my experience advises inner trendlines to be of greater avail than ordinary trendlines when spotting potential supportresistance areas. 1. Each forex scholar offers his own interpretation of supportresistance levels, meaning different entities thereby (inclined, horizontal, inclined-horizontal, MA-based, round numbers-based, etc.). 2. There exists no clear-cut technique to define points to plot supportresistance levels through (except that of Demarks). 3. In real time trading, that said, these levels discovery on forex charts automatically entails absolutely different conclusions. Legend: - ordinary trendline - inner trendline. TESTING AND PRACTICAL INCONSISTENCY OF CLASSICAL SUPPORTRESISTANCE DETECTION METHODS Jeffry Owen Katz and Donna L. McCormick have disclosed results of their testing of the above scholars recommendation procedures in their Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies: TEST PROCEDURE 2 A channel breakthrough-operated system. Closing prices are utilized only next day market price entry at session opening commission and slippage being accounted for. The above test has been performed exactly the way the previous one, but with no account to slippage (3 ticks) and commission (USD15 per dealing cycle). Although the model displayed perfect operation with no account to dealing expenditures, it has turned out a complete fiasco in practice. Even the best-in-sample solution has proved loss-responsible only, and, as expected, the systems beyond-sampling poor operation came into being. Note: In compliance with E. Naymans theoretical outlook, a channel upward breach is alleged to be a STRONG (. ) trading signal at an uptrend. TEST PROCEDURE 6 It is a closing price breakthrough system with next day per stop-order entry. The model longs via a stop-order at the point of breaching a resistance appointed by recent highs and shorts via a stop-order at the point of breaching a resistance appointed by recent lows. As expected, the system exhibited much poorer operation with low profit and deteriorated statistics within sampling. The model proved killer to the per-deal average of USD798, with profit rating being 37. TEST PROCEDURE 7 The procedure involved volatility punch with next-day opening entry. The model longs upon next-day opening with provision that todays closing appears superior to the volatility upper edge. The model shorts in case of the price falling below the above edge. The optimization period embraced 240 dealings only with 45 being profit-bringing. TEST PROCEDURE 9 Involved is volatility punch triggering a per stop-order entry. The model effects a market stop-order entry immediately after passing a breach point. The sampling period incorporated 1465 dealings, each being of 6-day average duration. The system has ensured 40 profit with average gain of USD931 each. Under all parameter combinations only longs were winning. Both shorts and longs proved loosing outside sampling limits. Only 29 were winning out of the total of 610 dealings. Testing data, supplied by Jeffry Owen Katz and Donna L. McCormick, constitute convincing grounds that forex scholars trading systems involving supportresistance breakthrough (the way these are described by the scholar) are rather likely to result in loss than in profit. This is one of the reasons for 95 of traders to turn their forex deposits killers. Inasmuch as the supportresistance related theory is so mixed up and subjective, it is only to be guessed what sort of supportresistance reading-matter may be offered by modern forex brokers websites. Lets resort to sort of a brief investigation of supportresistance levels by way of May, 12, 2005 sample trading day analysis. - EURUSD 1,2720 1,2475 1,29 1,3160 - GBPUSD 1,90 1,9150 1,8540 1,8130 Comments: the Alpari Analytical Department Director Roman Pavelko is hardly able to teach beginners, assuming the following: a). he has mixed up the EUR and the USD support and resistance b). being an intraday trader, he recommends going long on the GBPUSD at a 150-point distance from the current morning price, whereas it is common knowledge for any Masterforex Academy beginner, that after a 150-point travel any position on the GBPUSD should be squared at a local high, instead of waiting for a further 150-point intraday leap to 1,9150. c). have You ever heard about an intraday trader, indicating a 450-point difference between support and resistance in his pending session trading plan (GBPUSD 1,90 - 1,8540) d). these recommendations aftermaths are apparent: the GBP has punched 1 point to 1,9001 and swiveled down to 1,8871 the EUR reached 1,2958 and reversed to 1,2853. That said, do You think, someones going to fire R. Pavelko from the Alpari Chief Analyst position I rather doubt the fact. Hence, the question is: why should R. Pavelko be source of such sort of recommendations to naiumlve Alpari beginners and why is Alpari management happy about situation where traders turn losers after following these recommendations Brokers recommended supportresistance on the EURUSD and GBPUSD as of June, 12, 2006 morning: - EURUSD: support 1.2780, 1.2740, 1.268590 1.2600, resistance 1.2890, 1.293040, 1.3000. - GBPUSD support 1.8740, 1.8670, 1.8560, resistance 1.8890, 1.8940, 1.9000 EURUSD support 1.2820 resistance 1.22940 (. ) GBPUSD support 1.8805 resistance 1.8950 The June, 12, 2006 information on technical levels of EURUSD GBPUSD is missing with the supportresistance levels themselves being quoted in incidental unsystematic fashion. EURUSD: - support: 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.277050, 1.2720, 1.2670, 1.2630, 1.26001.2580, 1.2540, 1.2500, 1.2460, 1.24001.2390, 1.2350, 1.2300, 1.2250. - resistance: 1.28901.2900, 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3040, 1.3100, 1.3150, 1.320010. GBPUSD - support: 1.8840, 1.8800, 1.874030, 1.8700, 1.867060, 1.8630, 1.8590, 1.8535, 1.8500, 1.8450, 1.8400, 1.8360, 1.8300, 1.8270. - resistance: 1.887080, 1.891520, 1.894050, 1.89901.9000, 1.9060. RES 4: 1.2990 RES 3: 1.2965 RES 2: 1.2940 RES 1: 1.2915 CURRENT PRICE: 1.2890 SUP 1: 1.2830 SUP 2: 1.2795 SUP 3: 1.2755 SUP 4: 1.2685 RES 4: 1.9080 RES 3: 1.9000 RES 2: 1.8960 RES 1: 1.8915 CURRENT PRICE: 1.8895 SUP 1: 1.8815 SUP 2: 1.8725 SUP 3: 1.8725 SUP 4: 1.8515 Are You not getting mixed up Each broker presents his own supportresistance levels different from others. With the above diversity of levels being recommended any truefalse breach of any technical level proves out of question. Should we attempt to simultaneously depict all the supportresistance levels furnished by various forex brokers, well ultimately find ourselves facing a picket fence thereof. The arrangement is reminiscent of J. Schwagers Technical Analysis. Complete course, raising a question: Is technical charting to be referred to as a prediction engine or as folk arts Probably, the best way out here is: 1. In view of huge number of forex scholars opinions, let everyone answer this question independently with the purpose of finding out the way to faultlessly pinpoint supportresistance levels. 2. Let everyone decide whether he is going to believe the supportresistance levels, released daily by various Brokers and Dealers, provided that: a). one has no idea of the definition principles thereof b). the above levels being offered at websites by non-traders or by ex-losers. Otherwise the natural result will remain equal to 95 of losers worldwide. SUPPORTRESISTANCE LEVELS CONSTRUCTION UNDER MASTERFOREX-V TRADING CONCEPT 1. Support and resistance levels are to be split into those of flat and trend: a). supportresistance levels are horizontal when in flat b). supportresistance levels are inclined when in trend. 2. Various kinds of supportresistance are intrinsic to various trend types (if You are considering 4 trend types, You will face 4 RS grids if 5 trend types are being dealt with, there will emerge 5 RS grids respectively). 3. A larger trend is of greater significance in respect to a minor one, whereas minor trend supportresistance levels are of more accurate nature than those of larger one. This issue has not at all been touched upon either by forex technical scholars, or by modern analysts. 4. All the 4 trend-type supportresistance detection procedure is elaborated in the fashion enabling the Masterforex-V Academy hundreds traders to daily set up supportresistance levels with 1-2 points deviation, due to forex quotes difference from various Brokers. This aspect has not been considered by forex technical scholars either. 5. It appeared indispensable to simultaneously analyze the minimum of 2 ally currencies supportresistance levels (say, GBPUSD, EURUSD, etc.) since there is the formula: True RS level breach by the forex pair 1 False RS level breach by the forex pair 2 EITHER False RS level breach by the forex pair 1 OR True RS level breach by the forex pair 2 This aspect has not been considered by forex technical scholars either. 6. Minor timeframes intermediate RS levels (for the sake corrective depth calculation) ARE DIFFERENT from those being manifested under forex trendwise travel. This aspect has not been subject to investigation by forex technical scholars either. 7. The available technical analysis scholar literature on supportresistance levels contains plentitude of helpful and. data. The objective is to effect independent synthesis of T. Demarks, A. Elders, E. Naymans, J. Murphys, D. Schwagers et al techniques with the above Masterforex-V principles in order to attain proper understanding of the way prior binary regularities tailor further movement perspectives. 8. A combination of 4 trends and more is helpful in 1-4 point-accurate detecting forex trading session local extrema. With the above said, it proves strange to hear the statement of Ch. Lebau and D. Lucas (see: Computer-aided analysis of Futures Markets (forum. masterforex-v. orgviewforum. phpf9 ), reading: We do not believe in exact price prediction popular practice. - Whats the way the Masterforex-V Academy students manage to profit now and then - Are they being no-readers of forex analysts numerous websites - Do they independently establish supportresistance levels on multiple timeframes of numerous - Do they check their established levels against a primary source (wherefrom the Brokers analysts use to crib a supportresistance) - Do they understand principles of truefalse breaching of each level and of a bounce therefrom - Are they capable of calculating in-session currencies travel margins to a destination, whereafter the above currencies bounce off and exhibit corrective reversal THE QUERY MAY GO ON: Masterforex-V Trading Academy in English - masterforex-v. su BOOK II Chapter I THE MFV TRADING CONCEPT TREND DEFINITION To ensure steady profits at FX a trader is suppos ed to pinpoint faultless entries and exits. Its common knowledge, that a trend is the principal and the most compromising relevant area. Hence, trend detection is the traders PRIMARY target. If The Trend Is Your Friend, entries should be executed trendwise and the profit should be allowed to flow, etc. there emerge questions to touch every live FX trader: - what are the trends criteria (bullish or bearish) - once known, it is a traders conventional job to enter trendwise and let the profit flow - if the FX major rule quintessence is as simple as that, why 90-99 of traders suffer losses with enviable permanence Book I Chapter XI Where trends are to be chased at FX or the traders faultless profit segments, masterforex-v.001011.htm analyses the FX scholars and modern forum-speaker traders overwhelming chaos in the field, ranging: - from the Charles Dow classical definition that a trend constitutes a vectored price travel, where each consecutive high is higherlower than the foregoing one with each consecutive low being higherlower than the foregoing one (my opinion: the definition is obsolete and does not fit new FX realities) - to some traders purely absurd opinions on no tre nds at modern markets along with Eric Naymans thinking of his trend varieties built upon no distinct criteria (There are none of any strict rules, once forever established, - E. Nayman stipulates). One of the factors responsible for traders en-mass deposit losses is fairly understandable from the above. If theres no distinct definition of trend - then the question is: should entries be effected bullish or bearish trendwise and where should the profit be allowed to flow MFV TREND DEFINITION From MFV standpoint a trend is a vectored price travel between two opposite reversal patterns. In-trend movement is of zigzag nature, i. e. there is a recovery wave following each pulse wave. The pulserecovery ratio is indicative of the trend direction. Thus: - under a bullish trend, the uprising pulse length exceeds the corrective bearish wave one - under a bearish trend, the bearish pulse length exceeds the corrective uprising wave one - under a sideways flat, the pulse and recovery durations are equal. Figure 1 legend: - flat upper boundary - flat lower boundary Figure 1. Trend and recovery Headnshoulders is a USDCAD reversal pattern with a bearish trend startup, where a downward pulse is longer than an upward corrective action. Respectively, a USDCAD W1 bearish trend is alive till there is a reversal pattern. As obvious from USDCAD W1 chart, there was no upward reversal pattern in 2003-2006. Hence the W1 bearish trend continues. Later on in Book II TA in MFV trading concept I will stage a detailed description of each component, attributable to the trend change, but for the time being only the critical ones will be referred to. 1. Atrend continues till theres a swivel, thus increasing the importance of reversal patterns, discussed hereinafter. Reversal patterns are found at any trends origination and termination. Thereby a trend constitutes the distance from one reversal pattern to another, being opposite: - the start of a bullish trend is a reversal pattern of the preceding bearish or sideways trend - the bullish trend continuation is a trend continuation pattern (see Book II Trend continuation patterns masterforex-v. subook2.htm )being a retracement variety calling for a trendwise entry. - the bullish trend termination being a bullish trend reversal pattern. Here are the examples: 2. There is an arbitrary fall of classical bullish and bearish trend reversal patterns into: a). reversal patterns resulting from a non-breakthrough of a next in turn resistance or support on a bullish or a bearish trend respectively: with reference to drawings of classical trend reversal patterns from the following books by FX scholars: John J. Murphy Futures markets TA: theory and practice D. Schwagger TA, comprehensive course A. Elder How to gamble and win at the exchange A. Elder Basics of exchange trading Larry Williams Long-term secrets of short-term trading K. Lukas Using TA at the world FX market A. Nayman Minor traders encyclopedia A. Nayman Master trading. Secret materials A quadrangle with the pulse and corrective waves equal to each other Below are several sample trend continuation models within a single trend. Of interest is the bullish wave transfiguration into a pulse and the bearish wave one - into a corrective action, thus governing a bullish trend continuation. - a pennant. CRITICISM OF CHARLES DOWS CLASSICAL TREND DEFINITION In last century thirties Charles Dow has proposed a trend definition up to now wandering from manual to manual and injuring traders in an irremediable manner. Please, once again go through Charles Dows definition: a trend constitutes a vectored price travel, where each consecutive high is higherlower than the foregoing one with each consecutive low being higherlower than the foregoing one. Is it clear why his definition fails to properly account for modern trend realities According to Charles Dow, the trend core criterium is restricted to the fact that each consecutive high is higherlower than the foregoing one with each consecutive low being higherlower than the foregoing one. It leads to erroneous logics of stops allocation (safety cushions per Bill Williams) offered in practically all FX manuals: one to several points lower the previous low at uptrend or the previous high at downtrend. Various timeframe figures below are illustrative of how this classical trick is used by the FX Game Organizer to blow off traders stops, positioned in strict accordance with Dows trend rules, included into the worlds FX manuals. What type of trend is here, proceeding from Charles Dows provisions Please, take pain to calculate how many highs are higher than the previous ones and how many lows are lower than the previous ones. And above all How many traders stops have been shot down here GENERAL TREND DEFINITION OUTLINE AS SEEN BY MFV TRADING CONCEPT. 1. Atrend is a vectored price travel between two opposite reversal patterns. 2. In-trend movement is of zigzag nature, i. e. there is a recovery wave following each pulse wave. The pulserecovery ratio is indicative of the trend direction. 3. Classical patterns are incorporated within a recovery (pullback) model, followed by a new trend wave. And now, assuming these paras 1-3, we will analyze the above figure 18. By all classical canons the previous low of 1.9647 is to be followed by: - the preceding trend denial according to Charles Dows uptrend tops and bottoms being higher than the previous ones - stop-loss orders placement. Instead of stop-loss orders I resort to locking (see Book I masterforex-v. org001018.htm ) I am always putting a series of questions to staunch supporters of stops being placed in conformity with FX canons: - Are You sure that the trend wont reverse at that point - If negative, why should You be placing a stop - But if You are certain, why dont You effect a concurrent opposite entry - What is Your piece of mind on how many traders in the world have placed stops along with You - Are You sure that the FX Game Organizer will not be tempted to knock down all the world traders stops by way of a single gesture and to continue urging the previous trend further on The above sample chart of dated 01.12.2006 furnishes strong evidence of: - WHAT FOR the world traders are trained to place stop-loss orders at the same point - WHAT FOR obsolete theories of Charles Dow and other FX scholars are published in millions of copies, being sufficient for ALL the traders throughout the world - WHY the 97-99 t raders loss statistics is identical through all the countries. So, whats to be done to avoid plopping down into losers swamp AT LEAST, You are to try to get the understanding of WHERE and WHY traders loose their deposits whereas, AT MOST, You are to attempt to elaborate Your own entry and exit algorithm. To this end You are to give scrutiny to the chapters on reversal patterns and trend continuation, incorporating a detailed investigation of: - shadow details of each trend retracement (recovery) - see the chapter on trend continuation patterns - shadow details of each trend swivel - see the chapter on trend reversal patterns - inaccuracies, innuendos and direct errors committed by FX scholars on the issue. Putting it otherwise, You will have to find problems solution, many of the scholars (John J. Murphy, D. Schwagger, B. Williams, A. Elder, K. Lucas, A. Nayman, etc.) have failed to find. AND BY WAY OF A PROMPT FROM MFV: A headnshoulders reversal pattern should take shape to ensure trend reversal. Legend: option Options A and B are indicative of the points where the headnshoulders reversal pattern could be feasible. Masterforex-V Trading Academy in English - masterforex-v. su